The flop comes down 2h As 5h. Nice, two pair on the flop with a backdoor nut flush draw. Good hand but a vulnerable hand so correct strategy is to try to take down the pot before the other players can draw trips or the flush. Problem is that I'm in first position so if I bet big on the flop I either take down a small pot, or will only get called when I'm beat. Decide to check, allow some money into the pot and check raise big. Richard is on my left. Loose aggressive player. I know I can count on him to bet, and he does not disappoint. $1. Another player calls around to the new guy Chris who tries to bet $20. We're playing pot limit, so we correct him to pot for $8. $16 in the pot, $32 in front of me. The other players fold to me.
Critical decision time. I have two moves here, fold or re pot all in. So I look at Chris and try to figure out what he has. Trips? Higher two pair? Well Chris is new to the game, but even so if he had trips $20 at an $8 pot is a gross overbet. Two hearts on the board, flush draw? If so his odds are about 1 in 5 to draw the heart, but if it pairs the board I win on a full house and if it falls running hearts I have the nut flush. Don't think he would over bet the draw. I think he is protecting a marginal/strong hand. Put him on a strong ace and re pot all in $32. Richard calls for less to create a side pot. Two of us are all in so the hand plays out face up.
Richard: 5s 3d ??? Chris: Ks Ac (I knew it!) At this point I'm in the lead. Lets take a look at the odds on the flop:
Nice, at this point I'm ~61% to win the hand but have a sneaking suspicion Richard is going to river me. Not bad considering I was less than 12% pre flop. Turn and burn:
The turn comes 3d. Richards hand improves, but his odds of winning go down because now Chris and I are also drawing for the straight. I improve to ~74%, Chris is dominated at 7%. For some reason now I know Richard is going to river me, but I'm in the lead with a better two pair and can almost taste the pot.
River comes down with another King. Ugh, Chris made his 7% draw to win the pot with his Aces and Kings beating my Aces and Twos. Dammit that hurts.
Oh well, as my poker guru always says "all you can do is get your money in the middle with the best hand" which I did so I guess I can't be too upset. Besides it was "Fiesta Night" with Tito's Tacos and the best Sangria ever. Overall the evening was a win.
Just in case you're curious, you too can stay up till 2am justifying your gambling losses with this handy poker calculator.
